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Beautiful fall weekend and some weather links
A broad upper level ridge will dominate the pattern over the eastern half of the U.S. for the next several days, leading to picture perfect fall weather over the weekend for the mid-South. Highs in the...
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Showers/T’storms to affect middle of week
Currently the Mid-South is sitting on the ascending side of a ridge axis located over New England with a deep positively tilted trough digging over Arizona. The trough will continue to dig eastward...
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Strong Storms Possible
With a decent ridge in place over the Southeastern CONUS and a deep positively-tilted long wave trough axis over the Western CONUS, today looks very mild once again. Ridging over the Southeastern...
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Some breaks in the cloud cover have been occurring, which was expected based on earlier runs of the RUC showing a patch of drier air at 700mb moving through the area. However, the limited amount of...
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Severe Weather Update
The severe weather threat has diminished dramatically. The lack of instability from diurnal heating has clearly taken its toll on the squall line, and the decay is quite evident in a recent radar...
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Rainfall
Monday evening began a pattern of continual precipitation throughout the Mid-South, and the rainfall amounts for the past 24 hours have been rather impressive in the Mid-South, with the bulk of the...
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Severe weather increasingly likely to start the week…
Over the last few days, operational models have been trending more and more towards solutions that show severe weather striking the area on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has now changed its...
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Diminishing severe weather threat for Tuesday…
Looking at the 15z run of the RUC model, the severe weather threat for today seems almost non-existent. An already rain-cooled air mass will not receive any extra convective energy from the sun as...
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A warm and dry Thanksgiving will turn into a wet weekend.
Thursday: Sunny with a high near 64° and a low near 35°. Friday: Sunny with a high near 68° and a low near 42°. Saturday: Clouds increasing throughout the day. Highs near 65° and lows near 40°....
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Break from rain around the corner
Highlights Chance of Precipitation early/mid-day Wednesday Rain chances diminishing throughout the week Temperatures returning to near normal The three day totals for the previous precipitation event...
View ArticleUpcoming weekend looks pleasant
Highlights For This Weekend Highs in the upper 30′s Lows in the lower 20′s The weather pattern currently in place looks to hang around for at least the short term. While a weak cold front will push...
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Long term: Pattern change due to stratospheric warming may be coming in Jan
Over the past few months since the 1st of November we have been in a very unfavorable pattern for sustained wintry weather. Concerns over the – PNA in my winter outlook lead to a revised outlook for...
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Short term: more of the same pattern and a look @ white Christmas chances
1. Sunday We will see a trough moving to the east as heights rise and ridging builds in. Once again a sign of more southerly flow, high pressure and a return to warmer than normal temperatures in the...
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White Christmas hopes still alive?
Current conditions. We have a closed upper level low moving through the region with a weak frontal boundary. Ahead of it we’re seeing a strong advection of moisture warmth and even some slight...
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- A correction on the isentropic analysis for tomorrow’s rain mixing ratios of 3-5 g/kg should yield rainfall of half an inch to perhaps an inch in a few spots southeast. - Looks like the system this...
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Long term: update on ECMWF weekly model and stratospheric warming effects
Thoughts on the control run of the euro monthly run forecast - Most of cold stays locked up in Canada through Jan 15th - Pacific flow across United states with ridge building over southern plains and...
View ArticleWill 2009 join 60″ club for Bowling Green?
Through December 18, Bowling Green had recorded 58.89″ of rain for the year, which ranks 12th all-time since 1893. With a big rain event forecast for the days before Christmas, 2009 should break past...
View ArticleHistoric cold snap underway
Today was the 3rd straight day with a high temperature under 32 F for Bowling Green. The forecast calls for sub-freezing high temperatures through at least Monday of next week which would fall just...
View ArticleBowling Green and clipper systems don’t mix
Any student who has taken my synoptic meteorology course knows that there is a very good reason snowfall forecasts tend to bust for Bowling Green. Synoptically speaking, every good snowfall storm track...
View ArticleRisk for 8-12″ of snow increasing; where is the question
Recent model trends of both the GFS (6z and 12z) and NAM 12z suggest that a band of 8-12″ of snow is increasingly likely for some portion of the Mid-South Friday into Saturday. The models are now...
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